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Thursday, March 23, 2006

Answer to You Make the Call AhKh

Recap: The blinds are 1-2. No Limit Texas Holdem. I have about $175.00 in front of me.
I am holding Ah Kh in the little blind.
4 people limp ahead of me.
I raise to $12.00.
I get 2 callers.
The flop: Js 8h 5h I bet $30.00. 2nd player folds, 3rd player raises to $75.00 and has enough chips to cover my stack.
How do you play that hand:

My answer: Move all-in unless you knw your opponent to be someone who only raises with a set.

Reason:

First ask, what are the pot odds?

$12 x 4 = $48.00 preflop
On flop $30.00 plus $75.00 = %105.00
Total: $153.00

It costs me $45.00 more to call

45:153 = pot odds slightly higher than 3:1 or 33.33%

What are the odds of winning?

If your opponent has:

AJ?
KJ, QJ or J10?
two pair (J8)?
a set?

(Use my chart at: http://www.legalizetexasgambling.com/TexasGamblingOdds.htm)

Assuming your opponent holds no hearts, your outs are:

AhKh vs AJo = 3 kings plus 9 hearts = 12 outs = 45% chance of winning

AhKh vs KJ, QJ or J10 3 kings plus 3 aces plus 9 hearts = 15 outs = 54.1% chance

Two pair (J8) = 8 hearts = 31.5%

Set = 8 hearts = 31.5%

(Note if your opponent holds 1 heart your odds with drop 3-5 percent.)

Even in your worse case scenario, you are moving in on a hand that the pot odds are about equal. There is a good chance, you are moving in with a hand that the pay out beats the odds laid. And, of course, you can also win if your opponent folds.

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